Fortnite Token Chance Calculator
How many chests until a pirate shop token drops? Enter your planned chest count to see your odds, expected chests, and how many chests you need for a 50% / 90% / 99% chance.
Drop rate is a community estimate (~1 in 700,000 per chest), not official Epic Games data. Fan-made tool; not affiliated with Epic Games.
Reverse: I want a target chance
How the Fortnite token chance math works
Every chest is an independent roll with drop probability p. The community-estimated pirate shop token drop rate is roughly 1 / 700,000, so p โ 0.00000143.
- Chance of at least one token in N chests:
1 - (1 - p)^N - Expected chests to first token:
1 / p โ 700,000 - Chests for a target confidence c:
ln(1 - c) / ln(1 - p)
Even at thousands of chests per day, a token drop is a long-term grind โ a 50% chance needs about 485,000 chests at the estimated rate.
FAQ
What is the Fortnite token chance per chest?
Epic Games does not publish the pirate shop token drop rate. Community estimates put it at roughly 1 in 700,000 chests. This calculator uses that estimate by default and lets you change it.
How many chests for a 90% chance?
About 1,612,000 chests at the community-estimated rate. The formula is ln(1 - 0.90) / ln(1 - p).
Is this tool official?
No. This is an independent fan-made calculator, not affiliated with or endorsed by Epic Games. All probabilities are community estimates.
Is the calculator free?
You get 3 free calculations per day. For unlimited calculations you can unlock 30 days for a one-time $2 payment โ no subscription, no auto-renewal.